Notes

Probabilistic Thinking

  • Updated July 2, 2025
  • 1 minute read
probabilistic thinking

↔ Deterministic Thinking (絕對型思維)


is having a willingness to always ask questions like “What else might happen?”, “What could happen next?”, “What if we’re wrong?” and to look at the full range of possibilities that might come to pass rather than to assume that things will go as planned.

  • Disconfirming Evidence — evidence that proves your existing ideas wrong — is exponentially more valuable than Confirming Evidence

Think In Probabilities, Not Certainties

  • Instead of saying “X will happen,” say, “There’s a 70% chance X will happen.”
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Updated July 2, 2025 • 10 days ago
© 2025 • Hua-Ming Huang licensed under CC BY 4.0

Hua-Ming Huang

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