“The decisions of our past are the architects of our present.” — Dan Brown

“It’s better to be boldly decisive and risk being wrong than to agonise at length and be right too late.” — Marilyn Moats Kennedy ¹

“Learn to make non-fatal or easily reversible decisions as quickly as possible. Fast (not rushed) decisions preserve usable attention for what matters. It’s deliberation—the time we vacillate over and consider each decision—consumes our attention. Embrace a choice-minimal lifestyle.” — [@ferriss4hourWorkweekEscape2011]

“I’ve learned that whenever I decide something with an open heart, I usually make the right decision.” — Maya Angelou

Naval Ravikant

We live in an age of infinite leverage. What I mean by that is that your actions can be multiplied a thousandfold, either by broadcasting a podcast or by investing capital or by having people work for you or by writing code. So because of that, the impacts of good decision-making are much higher than they used to be because now you can influence thousands or millions of people through your decisions or your code. So clear mind leads to better (sound) judgment leads to a better outcome. So a happy, calm, peaceful person will make better decisions and have better outcomes. So if you want to operate at peak performance, you have to learn how to tame your mind. ² Just like you have to learn how to tame your body. ³

If you want to make the wrong decision, ask everyone.

How To Make Good Decisions?

• When faced with a difficult decision, ask yourself what your 80-year-old self would want you to do.
• Anytime you feel a high activation state of any kind of positive/negative emotions or internal arousal, you should pause/stop and reflect, because what’s happening is it’s revealing to you something very important.
  • By reflecting on these states, we can uncover important lessons and insights that can inform our future decisions and actions.
  • If you don’t stop to think about why I’m so upset or why I’m so happy, you’re gonna miss an important lesson. (similar to Alchemy 煉金術 & Avocados ⁴)
• The Secretary Problem (The 37 Percent Rule) 撿石子理論
  • It implies that the optimal win probability is always at least 1/e (e is Napier’s Constant or Euler’s Number), and that the latter holds even in a much greater generality.
    • 最佳觀察期為整條路段長度的 1/e ~ 0.36788 (略大於 1/3)
  • Examples
    • 擇偶
    • 雇員
    • 買房
  • Note that this theory is not time-based, but iteration-based.
• Trust your gut

Look for single decision that removes hundreds or thousands of other decisions.

“Don’t make a hundred decisions when one will do.” — Jim Collins

• 「哪一種決定是可以把水龍頭🚰關起來的? 」
• Style is consistent constraint. Having a style collapses hundreds of future decisions into one, and gives you focus. Style gives you leverage. Every time you reuse your style you save time. A durable style is a great investment. Collect constraints you enjoy.

The 10-10-10 Rule

A simple decision-making framework created by author and speaker Suzy Welch. The idea is that you pause and evaluate your decision across three timeframes:

• 10 Minutes: How will you feel about this decision in 10 minutes?
• 10 Months: How will you feel about this decision in 10 months?
• 10 Years: How will you feel about this decision in 10 years?

Two types of decisions

Some decisions are consequential and irreversible or nearly irreversible — one-way doors — and these decisions must be made methodically, carefully, slowly, with great deliberation and consultation. If you walk through and don’t like what you see on the other side, you can’t get back to where you were before. We can call these Type 1 decisions. But most decisions aren’t like that — they are changeable, reversible — they’re two-way doors. If you’ve made a suboptimal Type 2 decision, you don’t have to live with the consequences for that long. You can reopen the door and go back through. Type 2 decisions can and should be made quickly by high judgment individuals or small groups.

As organizations get larger, there seems to be a tendency to use the heavy-weight Type 1 decision-making process on most decisions, including many Type 2 decisions. The end result of this is slowness, unthoughtful risk aversion, failure to experiment sufficiently, and consequently diminished invention We’ll have to figure out how to fight that tendency.

By James Clear (author of Atomic Habits)

I think about decisions in three ways: hats, haircuts, and tattoos.

Most decisions are like hats. Try one and if you don’t like it, put it back and try another. The cost of a mistake is low, so move quickly and try a bunch of hats.

Some decisions are like haircuts. You can fix a bad one, but it won’t be quick and you might feel foolish for a while. That said, don’t be scared of a bad haircut. Trying something new is usually a risk worth taking. If it doesn’t work out, by this time next year you will have moved on and so will everyone else.

A few decisions are like tattoos. Once you make them, you have to live with them. Some mistakes are irreversible. Maybe you’ll move on for a moment, but then you’ll glance in the mirror and be reminded of that choice all over again. Even years later, the decision leaves a mark. When you’re dealing with an irreversible choice, move slowly and think carefully.

Two types of decision-makers

• Maximizers: People who want the “absolute best” option. They may leave happiness on the table.
• Satisficers: People who want the “good enough” option. They may leave achievement on the table.

Be primarily internally driven

When faced with any key decision, you effectively choose one of two potential characters: Investor or Borrower.

• The Investor is a long-term thinker who makes an investment to delay gratification.
  • Investments compound positively and the future self cashes in on the rewards.
• The Borrower is a short-term thinker who takes out a loan to experience pleasure now.
  • Loans accrue interest negatively and the future self is stuck with the bill.

The Munger Two Step

1. Understand the forces at play.
2. Understand the psychological factors, i.e., how your subconscious might be leading you astray.

One filter I use for making decisions: “How much can I influence the outcome after the initial choice is made?”

• When I can do a lot to influence the outcome, I’m less worried about risk. Even if the choice appears risky on the surface, I can likely create a good outcome with effort.
• When I can’t do much to influence the outcome, I’m more risk averse. Even my best effort won’t move the needle.
• Your ability to influence the outcome after a decision is made is a crucial thing to consider.

The person who experiences the consequences should make the decision.

Razors

= heuristics/principles that amplify your decisions

= rule of thumbs that simplifies the decision-making process

• The Rooms Razor
  • If you have a choice between entering two rooms, choose the room where you’re more likely to be the dumbest/weakest one in the room.
  • Once you’re in the room, talk less and listen more.
  • Bad for your ego—great for your growth.
  • Related: You don’t have to be the loudest in the room. Just be the one everyone listens to when it goes quiet.
• The Arena Razor
  • When faced with two paths, choose the path that puts you in the arena.
  • It’s easy to throw rocks from the sidelines. It’s scary and lonely in the arena—but it’s where growth happens.
• The Duck Test
  • If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck.
  • You can determine a lot about a person by observing their habitual actions and characteristics.
  • When someone tells you who they are, believe them the first time.
• The Hanlon’s Razor
• The Hitchens’ Razor & Newton’s Flaming Laser Sword
  • Anything asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
  • If something cannot be settled by reasonable experiment or observation, it’s not worth debating.
• The Bragging Razor
  • If someone brags about their success or happiness, assume it’s half what they claim.
    • If a person tells you why their thing (city, relationship, or job) is great, take it with a pinch of salt.
  • If someone downplays their success or happiness, assume it’s double what they claim.
    • If a person tells you why their thing (city, relationship, or job) is terrible, take it like a handful of gold.
  • Beware of Trojan Horses (特洛伊木馬)
• Taleb’s Surgeon
  • If presented with two equal candidates for a role, pick the one that doesn’t “look the part” / with the least amount of charisma.
  • The uncharismatic one has got there despite their lack of charisma. The charismatic one has got there with the aid of their charisma.

The Cheshire Cat Principle: How to Create Clarity

If you aren’t clear on where you want to go, any road will take you there.

In Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, there’s a scene in which Alice reaches a fork in the road and has a simple exchange with the Cheshire Cat:

“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”

“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cat.

“I don’t much care where—” said Alice.

“Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the Cat.

Think in Expected Value

[@dukeQuitPowerKnowing2022]

• Decisions should be made like bets: weighing probability of success × payoff.
• If the expected value of continuing is lower than switching, quit sooner.

Mental Models

Everything in life has an opportunity cost