The Lindy Effect is a concept that suggests the future life expectancy of non-perishable things is proportional to their current age. In other words, the longer something has existed, the more likely it is to continue existing.
Unlike living organisms, the Lindy Effect applies to things that do not have a natural lifespan, such as cultural artifacts, knowledge, and technologies.
For example, a book that has been read for 100 years is likely to be read for another 100 years, while a new book may disappear quickly. The Lindy Effect helps explain why classics persist and why new inventions or ideas face a high risk of extinction.
Examples
- Ancient philosophies (e.g., Stoicism) have lasted thousands of years and are likely to persist.
- Technologies like the wheel or writing have endured for millennia.
- Institutions such as universities or religions that have survived for centuries are likely to continue.
Value tends to concentrate
A small percentage of ideas or resources (the “Lindy” ones) create most of the lasting impact—echoing the Pareto Principle (0.1% of resources/ideas create 90% of the value).