coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

is the human tendency to create simple, causal stories to explain complex events, even when there is little evidence, leading to poor decision-making.

This fallacy makes us oversimplify reality.

Our brains like to “make sense” of the random chaos around us, so the stories provide a sense of calm.

Therefore, the original stories are often the ones that gets preserved and deeply entrenched. New information is massaged to fit that story, or rejected if it doesn’t.