the-impact-bias

We overestimate:

  1. How intensely we will feel after future events (good or bad), and
  2. How long those feelings will last.

We think future events will affect us more than they actually do.


  • With Impact Bias, we mispredict our future emotions.
  • With the End of History Illusion, we mispredict our future selves.

Both show humans are poor forecasters.

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